The 2027 electioneering campaign has just begun. After many flip-flops, back-and-forths, and INEC’s melodrama, the stage is set. Political actors from across the divide are jostling for votes, or perhaps working to undermine one another, no thanks to APC’s seeming undercut against the opposition. But, however, the die is cast.
Amidst the power play, intrigues, permutations, recalibration and political arithmetics lies a wonderful pride — the North. Yes, the North, hate it or not, remains the region with the highest voting bloc. Recent INEC data shows 56,014,673 voters had registered from the region; that’s about 54.16 percent, while the South trails with 45.48 percent.
In the last election, the North voted massively for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC, and has had high expectations. But three years down the line, the region is sharply divided on the basis of re-electing the APC and Tinubu.
What went wrong?
A combination of multiple and recurring existential challenges — like insecurity, the economy, social strife and hardship, which the APC policies birthed — remains at the front burner of daily lamentations across the region. The inability of families to survive, grueling high prices of fuel due to subsidy removal, farmers abandoning their farmlands because of insecurity and being kidnapped for ransom — these are enough catastrophe to fuel discontent across the region.
Sacrifices, pain and gain
The APC’s and President Tinubu’s men in the region are quick to assuage feelings of discontent by saying it was a necessary step to salvage the country. They claim Tinubu’s policies, despite their crushing effect, were the ultimate sacrifice for a better tomorrow. For instance, Abdulaziz Abdulaziz, one of the presidential spokespersons, said, “Subsidy should have gone 30 years earlier; Tinubu just rescued the country.” But if removing subsidy was to brighten our tomorrow, needing extraordinary patience, why does that not reflect in Tinubu’s appointees or elected officials? A people can be supportive, sacrificial and submissive to certain policies through patriotism when there seems to be honesty and transparency on the part of leaders.
Curiously, concerns centered on borrowing by this administration despite claims of savings in the trillions due to subsidy removal keep resurfacing. At the last count, Nigeria’s debt profile is put at N166.79 trillion — the highest ever in the history of the country. This raises doubt, because people cannot be patient in the face of injustice, inequity and lack of transparency. These debts are staggering, with little or nothing to show. No visible impact on the lives of toiling Nigerians. Instead, the luxurious lives of political actors, paid by, or through sacrifices of Nigerians, is too heavy to ignore.
Now, does the North truly hate Tinubu?
To whom much is given, PLENTY is expected. The region had, in 2023, voted overwhelmingly for Tinubu. Obviously, they had given him the mandate to rule. Sure, there were expectations: improved security and access to farmlands, a better economy and improved livelihoods and infrastructure. The support the region gave Tinubu is not in isolation. Payback and reward were anticipated. What the region is doing is simply and genuinely asking for recompense. And that cannot be misconstrued as hate. The APC and Tinubu cannot push back against demands of a people. The President had previously said he was not the reason for hunger in the land. Shifting blame and evading responsibility depicts either lack of empathy or marked cruelty. Leadership comes with responsibility.
Tinubu, Govs: Who takes the blame?
In fairness, the blame for current hardship across the region should be evenly distributed between the President and governors. The federal allocation to states since removal of subsidy has risen significantly, with some receiving as much as N399 billion — half a trillion. Such funds could have addressed crucial issues and transformed livelihoods across different sectors, especially healthcare, education, social intervention and economic empowerment. State governors rather engaged in massive construction of needless overhead bridges and flyovers which, unfortunately, have little or zero direct impact on the populace. Where Tinubu cannot be absolved of any share of the blame is his reluctance, ostensibly for political patronage, to sanction governors who divert local government allocation.
Kaduna rally, Tinubu and his Arewa henchmen
Tinubu kicked off his re-election rally in Kaduna on Saturday, Oct 24. The rally tells, even in unclear and hushed whispers, what to expect. From protecting and guarding Tinubu’s billboards against vandalism and destruction by armed policemen, to the chants or boos of masses — “Ba Ma Yi” (we don’t want / we won’t) — these are red flags of what to expect. Crowded rallies are usually paid for, depending on the generosity and size of one’s pocket. Governors in the region especially would want to desperately impress Tinubu (justifying their huge monthly FAAC paycheck) by funding large crowds and gatherings.
The President’s northern henchmen, including appointees, senior advisers, paid clerics and strategists, aren’t fair to the president. They ought to have conveyed to the president in clear terms what the needs of the masses are: their frustrations, the need to return to their farmlands, ability to sleep with both eyes closed, travel and walk freely without fear of kidnapping, and to rescue their loved ones held in captivity.
Making consciousless and unmitigated remarks, like “if late President Buhari, an ex-military, could not address insecurity, no one (Tinubu included)” — as Tinubu’s Campaign DG, Gov. Yari, made — is damaging. Instead of a message of hope, they are selling a repackaged and renewed hopelessness, which sends fear, despair and doom to the North.
Tinubu’s northern henchmen are trying to force him down the throat of the masses using intimidation, manipulation, fear, weaponizing poverty and guilt trips. No matter the large crowds they rent, if these genuine concerns are left unattended, they are digging the hole that would consume not only them but their principal.
Abdullahi D Mohammed is a policy analyst and Director, Initiative for Concerned Citizens Against Drug Abuse and Community Awareness. He writes from Kano [email protected]
