This may seem like the most difficult time to occupy a position of leadership in our country, given the choices before us. Whether in adjusting to the transgenerational troubles with our economy or the geopolitical events exerting pressure on their outcomes, there’s no easy way to say that the medicine would be bitter. However, because we have refused to settle for a placebo, because we know the danger of leaving a life-threatening disease untreated for too long, we are confident that the health of this nation is in good hands. I am, therefore, deeply honoured to be invited to participate in this reflection on the state of our nation today.
2. Leadership in a time of crisis is akin to standing at the helm of a ship going through a storm, where the weight of every life on board rests upon your shoulders, and the course you chart will shape the destiny of all who follow. In such moments, true leadership demands not only courage but also the wisdom to sail on or abandon ship. His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, chose the option that would save the life of the nation, instead of one that would merely prolong its imminent and predicted economic death.
3. Before we took charge, the biggest elephant in the room was the question of fuel subsidy removal. We understood why our predecessor made the decision to remove the and refused to budget for it in their final fiscal year. The year before we took office, Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio had grown to 111.8%. The anticipated debt crisis may sound like fancy economic jargon to the man on the street, but you and I are in a better position to understand how such miscalculations have played out in other countries. It’s an economic death sentence.
4. In plain terms, our debt servicing was such that if you earned, say, N100,000, the entirety of the money wasn’t only paid to your debtor; you were forced to borrow an additional N11,800 to pay the debtor. How do you intend to survive this, and how many more loans before you become a pariah? We are not even discussing the nation’s budget deficits, diversions of resources from critical sectors of the economy, and corruption masterminded in the subsidy regime.
5. We know that government is a continuum, and whoever has succeeded the previous government would have either chosen to steer the ship through the storm as President Tinubu is doing or jumped ship and let the country implode. Fortunately, there is a good reason some of our brothers and sisters who ran for this office were unable to question our methods. This was because, whether in handling the subsidy matter or the forex crisis, they had also promised the solutions we had adopted. Those who attempted to eat their words were instantly proven wrong by data, history, and their antecedents—those emotionless reality checkers.
6. Sometime in February this year, a presidential candidate in the last election, eager to mock our economic trajectory, rushed to point to Argentina as a model for Nigeria. An overnight free-market specialist, he was convinced we had missed our way and should have adopted the template of our friends in South America. In barely two weeks, he watched as Argentina’s inflation rate soared yet refused to acknowledge that every country’s journey is different. Every country is a product of its economic history and context. We respect what President Javier Milei does there, and we wish him well, but governance is not the photocopying machine some of us believe it is.
7. When I speak about the contextuality and complexity of each country’s economy, I acknowledge the economic sabotage we have had to endure. Our brothers in charge of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Office of the National Security Adviser, Mr. Yemi Cardoso and Malam Nuhu Ribadu, had to take matters into their hands to neutralise the overpowering influence of currency manipulators who had conspired to frustrate our reforms. Today, I stand proud to say that their interventions have translated into desired results, and Naira’s pushback against all odds is an inspiring journey that doesn’t have to be learned in Buenos Aires, as some would want us to do.
8. The interventions rolled out by President Tinubu have been categorised into eight areas. The 8-point agenda is a good prism through which to view the thrust of our administration, and we can begin to measure our fidelity to our promises through the policies and programs being executed to guarantee job creation, promote economic growth, ensure food security, eradicate extreme poverty, facilitate access to capital, preserve the rule of law, wage an anti-graft war, and drive inclusive development.
9. While the government has undertaken ambitious projects to strengthen Nigeria’s position in various food and cash crops, including investments in wheat farming, where Nigeria currently spends about $4 billion on imports alone, there remains the issue of affordable housing. The launch of the Renewed Hope Housing Scheme in February 2024, with its first phase promising 250,000 new homes across the country, aims to bolster the existing housing stock, with an anticipated positive impact on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
10. Our economic indices may appear modest to us, but this is merely a transition—a short but necessary action in the operating theatre. Incessantly, we are working hard to ensure that our inflation numbers drop, avoiding the pitfalls experienced by nations such as Egypt, Turkey, Ghana, and certainly not the Argentine experience. Instead, we hope to replicate the Brazilian experience in driving down our inflation from the current 33.2% to a moderate number before the end of this year. Our surveys show that food and other prices are moderating across several markets. Our target is to exceed the projected growth rate of 3.38% by multilateral agencies and even the 3.8% in our 2024 budget, and begin to pursue the near-double-digit vision of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This is the destiny we are crafting.
11. Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, amidst the current surge of government efforts and initiatives across several sectors, we anticipate a further reduction in unemployment rates. Additionally, we will continue to deploy countermeasures against underemployment. Nigeria’s Gini Coefficient stands at 35.1%, positioning us as the 11th most equitable nation in Africa—a testament to our policies fostering opportunities, inclusivity, and relative parity. While it may not be the most favourable time anywhere on the planet, our destination is a place where safety and optimism prevail.
12. Every policymaker’s clearest guide is data; it’s unsentimental. The numbers show that our Gini coefficient surpasses that of our African counterparts—with South Africa standing at 67.1%, Algeria at 38.1%, Morocco at 50.1%, and even the United States at 43%. This means that the aspirational spirit of Nigerians is unsullied, and it’s encouraged by our government. We look forward to the positive impact on the economy that will be brought by some of our new initiatives in the oil and gas sector, creative arts sector, the newly rejigged steel and solid minerals sectors, our housing sector, the blue economy, and the digital sectors, to mention but a few. There is no doubt that there’s a time to plant and a time to reap. In between those times, we appeal for patience and seek collective sacrifice from all, especially from us. We wish there were a way to treat this ailment without surgery.
13. Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, the issue of access to jobs is being addressed through initiatives such as the Outsource to Nigeria Initiative (OTNI), Investment in Digital and Creative Enterprises (iDICE), and our various Expanded National MSME Clinics. Furthermore, we have implemented a consumer credit scheme, and with a dedicated leader appointed to ensure the actualization of our administration’s promised capital accessibility.
14. This paradigm shift is closely related to the launch of the student loan scheme and the appointment of one of Nigeria’s foremost bankers, Mr. Jim Ovia, as the Chairman of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund. This marks a new day for Nigerian youth as we transform our economy into a realm of unbounded productivity, akin to some of the best countries in the world.
15. Our promise to wage war against corruption without interference or favouritism is being fulfilled. The ongoing high-profile cases indicate a new era of accountability. The administration’s revenue drive is on track to deliver outstanding results, with the continued digitization of revenue collection in all ministries, departments, and agencies.
16. Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, the change we promise starts with us, and I assure you that we are leading by example through policies that curtail unnecessary travels and reduce the size of the presidential entourage and mine. I believe Nigerians should recognise these important strides and adopt a more positive outlook on our country.
17. I truly wish there were a shortcut to our promised land. But the only shortcut available is to resort to offering placebos to the nation, which, I guarantee, would mortgage both the present and future generations. However, we’ve chosen the path of salvaging the nation, and I assure you that our economic promises remain valid. Soon, Nigeria’s economy will experience significant growth once we’ve overcome these sacrifices. Positive changes will soon be evident across all economic indicators – inflation, per capita income, GDP numbers, poverty reduction, food security, and all aspects close to the hearts of our people.
18. As leaders, we bear the burden of responsibility for our actions even when we are convinced that we are right, even when data seems to favour our positions, even when common sense appeals to our decisions, and, especially, when we are wrong. The time of crisis or expectations, I believe, is precisely the time that a leader of note proves their resilience, and I must appeal to you to stare at the big picture with me and believe me when I say: there is no shortcut to where we are headed. Thank you, and God bless us all.
Being a speech by His Excellency, Senator Kashim Shettima, GCON, Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, at the 2nd Chronicle Roundtable at Ladi Kwali Hall, Abuja Continental Hotel, Abuja, on Thursday, May 2, 2024.
