The year 2027 provides former vice president and presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar the best chance of realising his life long ambition of becoming the president of Nigeria.
The next round of elections offers Atiku the best opportunity so far because all the odds seem to favour him with the only stumbling block being the power of incumbency, challenge of party platform and the general belief that it is the turn of the south.
The odds that worked in favour of Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2023, like the push for a southern president and the split in the opposition camps, while they exist and may matter in 2027, they’re not considered with same fervency as was the case in the previous dispensation.
So far Atiku has contested six presidential elections and has shown capacity and brawn but in no other election does his chances seem brighter than in the next elections.
In 1993, when Atiku first ran for the presidency, he stood only a nimble chance of making any impact as he was under the shadows of a bigger political figure and was seen as the alter ego who can only play a role when his principal, Shehu Musa Yaradua, delegates to him or if by some reasons is not able to contest himself.
His coming third at the SDP primary and his stepping down for MLK Abiola which helped the latter to win registered him as a force to reckon with.
By 2003, a golden opportunity came knocking for Atiku as a sitting vice president coupled with the support he had from majority of the governors of that time, the clout he has built as vice president and the enormous goodwill he enjoyed across parties.
But he failed to grab the opportunity as the cunning subtlety of his boss-Obasanjo- deceived him into making a wrong decision which was that Obasanjo be allowed to complete two terms instead of the Mandela option of one term earlier suggested.
By 2007, Atiku would realise he had made a mistake by not contesting against his boss in the previous dispensation when all obstacles including hounding all his supporters and suspending him from party were put on his way.
That was his worst chance as he had no formidable party platform; the standing structure he had were seized from him; he was slammed with all sorts of allegations in addition to vengeful president willing to go to any extent to stop him.
By 2011, the former vice president however started showing signs of recovering from the humiliation of the previous outing when he found his way back to the PDP and defeated former military president Ibrahim Babangida to emerge as the northern consensus candidate.
But the sympathy people had for Jonathan as the first from his side of the country to rule Nigeria coupled with the power of incumbency weighed in heavily making Atiku to lose the PDP ticket.
By 2015 when the former vice president teamed up with others to leave the PDP, he knew that he stood only a little chance because of the presence of the people like Buhari whom many believe would secure northern votes for the party. It was not surprising that Atiku came a distant third at the APC primary.
Hence apart from 2003 when Atiku had a golden opportunity to strike and covet the prize but didn’t, the other big opportunity he had was in 2019 when he clinched the PDP ticket to contest against Buhari.
It was a good opportunity because disappointed by a lacklustre performance his supporters no longer revered the former military ruler as the Messiah and were looking for an alternative.
Still, the power of incumbency did not allow Atiku take the prize though many believed he won that election.
He entered into the 2023 race against many odds which included the fact that his party had agreed to zone the ticket of the party. By the time intrigues in the party shattered that arrangement, Atiku had the challenge of uniting all the aggrieved to work with him.
The APC presidential took advantage of that decision and got key leaders of the PDP to engage in anti-party to work for him which led to the defeat of the PDP.
But Atiku is currently not burdened by these encumbrances in the build up to 2027 as many factors seem to favour him not just as an opposition candidate, but one whose experience could help to check electoral manipulations.
The first is the hardship brought on citizens by the Tinubu administration’s harsh policies which has made the average Nigerian fall under the poverty level.
This comes as an advantage to the opposition because citizens finding it hard to meet their basic needs, have become blind to the issue of political correctness like zoning hence do not care whatever zone the next president comes from in so far as he promises to ease the burden on them comes from.
The removal of oil subsidy, floating of the naira, increase in electricity tariff, harassment of Bureau de Change operators even as insecurity persists have given the Tinubu administration is below average rating while Atiku is further helped on this by his criticisms of the harsh policies and his offer of alternative ways of going about them.
Another thing is that Tinubu had failed to win the confidence of the north with his harsh policies and lukewarm attitude to issues that affect the region.
The northers feel betrayed that what they’re getting in terms of key appointments are not commensurate with the support they gave Tinubu in 2023.
All these have de-marketed the APC led government in the north which has a huge pool of voters.
Again, Tinubu’s humiliation of people like Nasir El-rufai and his inability to win over Rabiu Kwankwaso due to the influence of Abdullahi Ganduje is continuously robbing him of support from that base.
Ironically too, the 2023 outing of Atiku in which he contested against the principle of zoning has come as a blessing because he had by that already sold the idea of a northerner contesting and people are now used to it and may not appear brazen as it did during the last election.
The good thing for Atiku is that due to the influence of the northerners in Tinubu’s government who are expecting the President to support them for the presidential ticket in 2031, a reconciliation to bring in Kwankwaso and El-rufai back to the president’s side does not seem likely.
As it is, all Atiku needs to do is to surmount the obstacles that come with power of incumbency, address the issue of party platform and sustain the cooperation with other opposition figures to win in 2027.
Tackling incumbency would mean ensuring that the electoral body and the security agencies are restrained from being overly partisan.
To achieve this, he may need to look at the scrap book of the APC in the build up to the 2015 elections where they made a heavy weather of foreign monitoring of the elections and threats of sanctions to enforce a level playing field.
That it worked in previous elections implies it can also work if the method is applied correctly.
For the challenge of a political party, as it is, all the major parties have been taking over by fifth columnists making it difficult for the opposition to have a platform viable enough to give the APC a good run for its money.
But that too can be handled with a surprise realignment of forces and mobilisation of resources like what Fubara did at the last minute during n the Rivers State local government elections in 2024.
How Atiku, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are able to work together would also matter but not as much as it did in 2023 because unlike 2023 when all the candidates had almost an equal chance, they have accepted their rating per the last presidential elections where Atiku came second.
The belief that that 2027 is the turn of the north if Atiku again gives a commitment to do only one term.
Despite these advantages, the fact is, if Atiku secures the ticket of the major opposition party, he would be facing the most vicious and virulent political force he has ever stood against since he started taking shots at the presidency.
- Okude contributed this piece from Abuja.
