As we march steadily toward the 2027 elections, one truth becomes glaringly evident: any real chance of unseating the APC lies in building a formidable, broad-based coalition. The APC, under President Tinubu, has presided over a Nigeria where economic woes, social discontent, and political disillusionment have been on the ascendance since 2023. These issues have led to the pauperization of Nigerians, record unemployment, inflation, insecurity, and a near-total collapse of the social contract, which can easily be attributed to the President. The country has been reduced to a nation of beggars, with many citizens depending on meager palliatives and luck to survive.
In the face of this crisis, opposition parties and civil society actors are once again talking coalition. But talking is not enough. History shows that coalitions can work, not only to win elections but also to shift a country’s direction. However, for this to happen in Nigeria’s context, personal interests must be subordinated to national survival, and the coalition must not just unite the top echelon of the political class, but energize and mobilize Nigerian people around a clear, people-centered agenda.
Coalitions are not new in politics, nor are they inherently weak or unstable. Around the world, coalitions including interparty and personality-driven, have served as powerful instruments for democratic change and national rescue. In recent US political history, the 2020 Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election was made possible by a coalition of Democrats, progressives, centrists, independents, and “Never Trump” Republicans. Former President Donald Trump’s divisive politics galvanized a wide spectrum of American society to come together for one goal: ending what they saw as a dangerous presidency. The Lincoln Project, a Republican group, publicly campaigned for Biden, which is a rarity in US politics.
In 2008, Barack Obama’s campaign successfully brought together African Americans, young people, progressive whites, and centrists. Though personality-driven, it was anchored on policy issues like healthcare reform, economic revival, and ending the Iraq war. And these did the magic!
In 2004 India, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) developed as a coalition of several parties to oust the BJP-led NDA government. It was driven by concerns about economic inequality and religious polarization. Sonia Gandhi’s decision to step aside for Manmohan Singh showed a sacrifice of personal ambition for national stability.
Furthermore in India, the Opposition Front (I.N.D.I.A), though still evolving, is an alliance being forged to stop the continuous rule of the BJP under Narendra Modi, whose style of governance many view as authoritarian and divisive. This is a live experiment in coalition building rooted in policy realignment and democratic defense.
In France, when far-right candidate Marine Le Pen threatened to take power, a centrist-left coalition including Macron’s party and parts of the Green and Socialist parties formed an alliance to block her. The electorate was mobilized not on love for Macron but fear of what Le Pen represented.
Coming back to home, the formation of the PDP in 1999 shows how various groups including ex-military leaders, technocrats, and politicians from across Nigeria’s diverse regions came together to win elections. The uniting of the old and young of the first, second and third republics was essential in restoring civilian rule, and in consolidating democracy post-military rule. And, President Olusegun Obasanjo’s presidency broad national backing.
Ironically, Tinubu himself was among the key architects of Nigeria’s most successful opposition coalition to date. The APC was born from the merger of four major parties including ACN, CPC, ANPP, and a faction of APGA as well as the defectors from PDP. Their unity, driven by national frustration with Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, led to Muhammadu Buhari’s 2015 victory.
Now, President Tinubu is not just another politician. He is a master politician who is deeply ambitious, ruthlessly transactional and self-serving narcissist. He consolidates power through patronage, loyalty networks, and absolute control of the political machinery. He has consistently shown that his brand in politics thrives on personal dominance, not institutional democracy. Tinubu is counting on the opposition to implode. He thrives in division.
Some would argue that Tinubu’s style is more dangerous than military rule because, at least under the military, there is no constitution, thus, autocracy is visible. Tinubu’s civilian autocracy hides behind the veil of democracy, while manipulating systems, intimidating opposition, and entrenching inequality. Any coalition hoping to unseat him in 2027 must understand the depth of his ambition and act accordingly.
For the opposition coalition to succeed in 2027, mere alliance of elites is not enough. The coalition must go beyond arithmetic and become a movement. Thus, personal ambitions must be relegated, even if temporarily, for the coalition to work. In 1999, Obasanjo was chosen not because he was the most popular, but because he was seen as a stabilizing figure. Similarly, in 2015, Buhari was chosen as a unifying face despite the then perceived potential of him turning against the kingmakers with his “war against corruption”. In 2027, no single candidate’s ambition should override the bigger goal of rescuing Nigeria. If internal battles fracture the coalition before the ballot, the APC wins by default.
A common agenda and messaging must be sustained at all cost. The coalition must be built on the shared ideals of fixing the economy, ending insecurity, rebuilding national cohesion and reviving education and health systems. Nigerians need real hope, not just slogans.
The coalition must activate its network of civil society, youth groups, labor unions, religious bodies, and student unions. The coalition must now transcend press conferences. Further, the coalition must reflect Nigeria’s ethnic, regional, class, age, gender, and religious diversities. Every Nigerian must see themselves in this coalition.
If personalities like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El Rufai and others cannot find common ground, Nigerians will suffer another four years of economic strangulation and democratic decay. The coalition must choose the country over ego, vision over ambition, sacrifice over self-promotion.
The stakes in 2027 are existential. A nation of 200+ million people cannot afford another four years of APC’s misgovernance that is marked by suffering, hardship, and authoritarian thumbprints. But unseating Tinubu is not just about removing a man; it is about ending a system that has failed Nigerians.
Coalitions have worked globally and in Nigeria. They work when they are built on purpose, humility, and discipline. The 2027 opposition has a chance to write history again, just as in 1999 and 2015. But history only favors the prepared and united.
