The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari has reignited a key question in Nigeria’s political space: who will fill the void he has left behind? To answer this, we must first understand the nature of Buhari’s influence and why replicating it might be nearly impossible.
Buhari’s cult-like following in northern Nigeria did not begin when he was elected president in 2015. It dates back to his first foray into democratic politics in 2002 under the platform of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). From there, he ran again under the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and finally as a central figure in the merger that birthed the APC in 2013.
In every presidential election from 2003 to 2011, Buhari consistently pulled around 12 million votes, mostly from the northern region. These bloc votes were so reliable and consistent that if Nigeria’s presidency had been determined by northern votes alone, Buhari would have had three straight victories before 2015.
Contrary to the widely held narrative that Buhari’s followership was earned due to his time as military Head of State, much of the loyalty he enjoyed was built during his tenure as chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), a development initiative created by General Sani Abacha. Many of the infrastructural and social interventions PTF implemented under Buhari left tangible impressions across the country.
Meanwhile, Buhari’s military regime, despite its disciplined posture, was hardly beloved. His currency change policy and austere economic decisions in the 1980s triggered so much hardship that many northern towns held prayer sessions asking God to remove him from power. His later popularity was therefore more about PTF legacies than military nostalgia.
Now, in the wake of his demise, many commentators and analysts have begun speculating about who might inherit Buhari’s mantle. Naturally, history abhors a vacuum, and leadership voids tend to invite new aspirants. Three names have consistently come up in this context: Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Malam Nasiru El Rufai.
But here is the hard truth: no one will truly fill Buhari’s shoes. His political base was forged in a unique blend of regional trust, religious symbolism, grassroots nostalgia, and personal charisma. Today, that trust has eroded. Buhari’s eight years in power, seen by many as a betrayal of the hopes pinned on him, left behind deep disappointment. The current economic pain under President Tinubu has only intensified the public’s apathy and skepticism. For millions at the grassroots, trust in the political class has reached historic lows.
Still, this does not mean Atiku, El Rufai and Kwankwaso are without opportunities. If either is to carve out a political niche ahead of 2027, they must move beyond personality-driven politics and understand that Nigeria today demands more strategic navigation. The political terrain now hinges on the vehicle, the party, and other crucial variables such as money, religion, sectional alliances, and ground-level mobilization. Building trust across regions and ensuring grassroots penetration will be the difference between relevance and irrelevance.
One promising dynamic emerging is the growing national coalition against APC governance. This is a broad platform seeking to capitalize on the ruling party’s waning popularity. Whoever clinches the presidential ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which is fast becoming the settled party the coalition has adopted, may enjoy a wave of support reminiscent of Buhari’s 2003 debut. In fact, the coalition’s candidate could even surpass previous electoral records for three reasons.
First, Buhari’s posthumous redemption has further separated his image from the current APC. Second, Nigerians now closely associate economic hardship and insecurity with Tinubu and the APC, often jokingly referring to the current hardship as TPAIN, a pun on the suffering they endure daily. Third, the APC is both imploding and exploding. Disgruntled Buharists, particularly those from the CPC bloc, are already jumping ship. Some will stay behind in protest but are unlikely to lift a finger to help APC retain power.
Of course, all of this depends on the coalition keeping its internal house in order. There are already dicy questions. Where will the presidential ticket be zoned? If primaries are transparent, who will emerge victorious?
Kwankwaso, though currently outside the coalition, is reportedly in advanced talks. However, in a recent interview, he revealed he is still weighing options between the APC and the coalition, with no decision expected until late 2025. This delay could cost him the coalition ticket or even a place on a ticket led by a southern flagbearer.
Atiku Abubakar, on the other hand, remains the coalition’s most visible and established figure. He has the backing of political heavyweights like Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and others (each of whom has aspirations). Atiku’s unique strength lies in his ability to draw support from both southern and northern Nigeria, a rare quality for a northern candidate. However, his Achilles heel remains his disconnect from grassroots. His 2023 campaign, particularly the policy of selling the refineries, was grossly misunderstood and was used by the ruling party against him.
If Atiku is to reclaim lost ground, his campaign must rethink its messaging, particularly in translating and contextualizing his ideas in local languages especially Hausa. This is crucial because the northwest and northeast are ripe for political realignment. APC’s grip in those areas is slipping and it is hardly retrievable.
Another influential figure capable of garnering significant support is Malam Nasir El-Rufai. His political trajectory closely mirrors that of late President Buhari, particularly in his firm and sometimes “ruthless” approach to implementing reforms. His transformational impact in Abuja as FCT Minister and in Kaduna State as Governor stands as a testament to his leadership capacity and vision for societal change. Notably, El-Rufai has, in last couple of months, consistently stated that late President Buhari endorsed his resignation from the APC. This is a move that adds weight to his influence. If he secures the coalition’s ticket, wins the election, and takes bold steps to address the economic and social hardships Nigerians currently face, he is likely to command widespread national support.
To conclude, no one will wear Buhari’s shoes in 2027. However, someone can build a new pair. If the coalition fields a candidate who understands Nigeria’s pain and addresses insecurity and economic collapse, such a person could spark a new wave of political loyalty, one more fervent than any movement in Nigeria’s democratic history. That candidate would not just win an election. The person would restore belief, and in doing so, surpass even Buhari’s legendary appeal.
