The resurgence of coups and coup attempts across West Africa requires deeper interrogation beyond the simplistic idea that the military is merely power hungry. The more convincing explanation is that democracy as practiced in the region has structurally failed. Instead of bringing accountable civilian rule, democracy has in many cases replaced military governments with civilian leaders who behave even worse. Many of these leaders manipulate ethnic, religious and political divisions, distort constitutional provisions, and preside over worsening insecurity, poverty and unemployment. The expanding coup belt is therefore not an accident. It is a direct response to the failures of political elites who have hollowed out democratic institutions while still claiming to govern democratically.
Democracy in West Africa was expected to provide accountability, transparency and meaningful public participation. In practice, civilian governments in many countries behave in ways that resemble authoritarian rule. Once in power, leaders centralize authority, silence critics, weaken institutions and use the state for personal and political survival.
Cameroon provides a striking example. Critics argue that President Biya, in office since 1982, symbolizes the stagnation of African democracy. Many citizens refer to him as a political relic whose prolonged stay in power reflects the deep decay in governance. The country has become an example of how constitutional structures can be captured and immobilized by a single leader who places personal tenure above national progress.
Côte d’Ivoire presents another case. President Ouattara’s controversial third term was enabled through constitutional reinterpretation. The move produced tension and violence, yet ECOWAS did not impose any meaningful punitive measures. To many observers, this silence reflects the regional body’s pattern of tolerating constitutional manipulation whenever it benefits incumbent leaders.
Nigeria has also experienced what many analysts describe as democratic backsliding. The suspension of elected executives and members of state legislature for six months under President Tinubu, although defended by the government, was interpreted by many as an authoritarian encroachment on democratic institutions. Actions such as this mirror the same tendencies that democracy was supposed to end.
In all these cases democratic structures remain in place only in appearance. The reality is that West Africa increasingly experiences elected governments that behave like strongmen regimes.
The foiled coup attempt in Benin Republic on Sunday is a powerful illustration of the broader regional crisis. The event did not emerge from nowhere. It was a reaction to corruption, a deteriorating economy, rising public frustration, and what many citizens consider an illegal amendment of the constitution to prolong presidential tenure. It was also influenced by the growing contagion of the new nationalism taking root in the AES states, a movement that challenges the legitimacy of entrenched elites as sellouts and puppets of foreign tutelage, inspiring popular demands for political renewal across the region.
What intensified public anger is the behavior of ECOWAS and neighboring states. Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast, and others offered no meaningful caution when President Talon carried out what many see as a coup against democracy by altering constitutional provisions for personal benefit. Yet, these same governments rushed to deploy troops to protect a leader accused by citizens of undermining democratic principles. This contradiction raises the question, who is fooling who?
Democracy in theory provides freedom of expression, freedom of association and public participation in decision-making. In practice many West African governments restrict these freedoms. They torment opposition figures, intimidate critics, weaponize the judiciary and manipulate electoral processes. Citizens watch these actions and conclude that democracy has become little more than a label.
With institutions weakened and accountability absent, political systems become fragile. The military, observing this fracture, interprets the situation as an invitation or responsibility to intervene. Whether justified or not, coups are presented as corrective measures meant to stop elite impunity and national decline.
This is why I wrote last week that more governments in the region are likely to fall before the end of 2025. That prediction still stands. The structural failures of democratic practice in West Africa will continue to generate instability and create openings for military intervention.
Several interconnected factors explain the growing trend of coups in West Africa. In most countries in the region, different insecurities prevail with governments appearing unable to protect their citizens. This widespread insecurity erodes public trust in civilian authority. Additionally, despite abundant natural resources, poverty and hunger remain endemic, as rising prices, weak public services, and limited opportunities exacerbate hardship and fuel public anger. Youth unemployment is another critical issue, as West Africa has one of the world’s youngest populations, yet opportunities for young people are scarce, leading to frustration and making youth particularly vulnerable to manipulation and unrest.
Furthermore, the leaders frequently manipulate or entirely rewrite constitutions to extend their time in office, and many citizens perceive this as an abuse of power. This pattern of constitutional manipulation breeds resentment, as citizens feel leaders cling to power beyond their mental or physical capacity to govern effectively. Collectively, these structural problems undermine the legitimacy of democratic institutions, creating an environment where military intervention appears to some as the only path to change.
Leaders across the region must look inward. The problems destabilizing West Africa are the result of internal political decisions. Insecurity, poverty, unemployment, corruption and constitutional manipulation are preventable. No country in the region should be poor. No people should be subjected to hunger or hopelessness.
If leaders continue down the current path, the coup belt will expand even further. The region risks normalizing cycles of political breakdown. West Africa requires not the appearance of democracy but genuine democratic practice. The people must have a say in how their resources are managed and how their future is shaped. Until this happens, instability will remain the predictable outcome.
