As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential elections, the political landscape is starting to take shape in a way that suggests a major shift. President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, which seemed promising when he assumed office in 2023, is now facing significant challenges. His tenure, initially marked by hope, has quickly turned into a series of missteps in governance, economic policy, and foreign relations. These blunders have eroded public confidence and united a formidable opposition that threatens his re-election bid.
Tinubu’s administration is now up against an opposition movement unlike any the country has seen in recent history. A coalition of powerful political figures, including Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and others, is coming together to form a mega-party aimed at challenging the incumbent. This coalition is a direct response to Tinubu’s leadership and is gaining momentum, especially among the disenfranchised, youth, and those feeling left behind by his administration.
In Nigerian politics, alliances often shift based on convenience, but the formation of this “mega-party” represents an unprecedented unity against Tinubu. Key political figures like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso are pooling their resources and support to create a formidable opposition coalition. Their combined strength presents a serious challenge to Tinubu’s chances of securing a second term.
Atiku Abubakar, a seasoned politician and former Vice President, has consistently maintained a strong political network, particularly in the north. Despite his unsuccessful bids for the presidency, Atiku remains influential, and his political base is deeply rooted. If he aligns with other influential figures, his ability to rally support could present a serious challenge to Tinubu’s second-term ambitions.
Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate in 2023, has become a significant force, particularly among young Nigerians and those dissatisfied with the traditional political parties. Obi’s message of hope and social justice resonates with voters looking for a break from the status quo. If he joins forces with Atiku, El-Rufai, and Kwankwaso, the coalition could tap into widespread support, especially from the youth and southern regions.
Nasir El-Rufai, the Governor of Kaduna State, is another key player in this coalition. Known for his political acumen, El-Rufai has significant influence in the north. His partnership with Atiku, combined with Obi’s southern support and Kwankwaso’s popularity, would give the opposition the national reach necessary to challenge Tinubu’s leadership.
Together, these figures represent a broad cross-section of Nigeria’s political spectrum. Their collaboration has the potential to create a united front capable of challenging Tinubu, especially as his administration struggles with economic difficulties, regional dissatisfaction, and foreign policy failures. If this coalition maintains its momentum, it could mark the end of Tinubu’s second-term ambitions.
One of the most significant factors contributing to Tinubu’s likely downfall is his economic agenda. When he assumed office in 2023, Tinubu promised to overhaul Nigeria’s struggling economy. However, his harsh economic policies—particularly the removal of fuel subsidies—led to a sharp increase in fuel prices and worsened inflation and unemployment, causing widespread backlash.
For millions of Nigerians, these economic hardships have shattered any hope in Tinubu’s leadership. Once seen as a potential savior for the Nigerian economy, Tinubu has become a symbol of failed promises. His administration has failed to address the basic needs of ordinary Nigerians, leaving them disillusioned and angry.
The removal of subsidies, while necessary for long-term economic reform, was not accompanied by sufficient support for the most vulnerable Nigerians. The absence of a comprehensive social safety net, coupled with the high cost of living, has alienated the middle and lower classes. Many who initially supported Tinubu now view him as out of touch with their struggles. This disconnect will likely lead to the loss of his largest vote bank, particularly in the north, where the cost of living has soared.
The lack of a clear, achievable economic plan, combined with the pain caused by his policies, has created an opportunity for the opposition to position themselves as the voice of the people. Their promise of better economic stewardship, job creation, and support for the poor will resonate deeply with voters in 2027.
Another factor contributing to Tinubu’s weakening position is his perceived sectional agenda. While he has championed regional development, particularly in the south, many in the north feel that Tinubu’s focus on southern development projects has sidelined their interests. His administration’s emphasis on southern-centric infrastructure projects, such as the Coastal Highway, has raised suspicions in the north.
For a president to maintain political power in Nigeria, balancing the interests of all regions is essential. Unfortunately, Tinubu’s failure to adequately address northern concerns—especially regarding economic opportunities, security, and infrastructure—has created a growing divide. The north, historically a strong base for the ruling party, now feels alienated by the president’s policies.
This sectional divide could fracture Tinubu’s support base in the 2027 elections. The north, which has always been crucial in determining the outcome of Nigerian elections, may turn against him in favor of the united opposition bloc. This shift in regional dynamics, combined with northern dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s governance, could deal a major blow to his re-election prospects.
On the international stage, Tinubu’s foreign policy has further undermined Nigeria’s position in West Africa. One of the most controversial aspects of his presidency has been his administration’s close relationship with France. France, a country with a history of meddling in African affairs, has not been a reliable partner for Nigeria. Tinubu’s alignment with France, particularly in the Sahel, has raised concerns among many Nigerians.
Moreover, Tinubu’s handling of ECOWAS has been disastrous. Under his leadership, Nigeria’s influence within the regional organization has diminished. Tinubu’s aggressive stance on issues like the Niger coup has alienated key ECOWAS partners, leaving Nigeria isolated in the region. Nigeria’s traditional leadership role in West Africa has weakened, directly affecting the country’s regional and global standing.
Tinubu’s foreign policy failures, combined with his economic and domestic missteps, have left Nigeria in a precarious position. The country’s influence in West Africa is at an all-time low, further adding to the growing disillusionment with his leadership.
The loss of mobilizing influence among religious clerics who supported President Tinubu in 2023 will significantly hurt his re-election bid in 2027. Many Nigerians, disillusioned by Tinubu’s economic policies and governance, will no longer heed the clerics’ endorsements. Once trusted to rally large voting blocs, these figures now face growing skepticism, as their support is seen as part of the political establishment that failed the country. This breakdown in trust will make it harder for Tinubu to rely on religious leaders.
Several former leaders, including Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida, and other influential political figures, have hinted at supporting the opposition against Tinubu. Obasanjo has expressed concerns about Tinubu’s leadership, particularly his economic policies and governance style. Babangida has distanced himself from Tinubu and is reportedly engaging with opposition leaders to explore possible support. These former leaders, with their extensive political networks, could rally key figures and voters against Tinubu, further weakening his chances of securing a second term.
Tinubu’s fate may mirror that of U.S. President Joe Biden, who, despite a significant win in 2020, faced a steep uphill battle for a second term. Biden’s inability to manage domestic issues, such as inflation and partisan division, led to his downfall. Similarly, Tinubu’s failure to address Nigeria’s economic challenges, compounded by a growing opposition and fractured support base, may result in a one-term presidency.
As the 2027 elections approach, Tinubu’s chances of securing a second term appear slim. The opposition is uniting against him, his economic policies have alienated the masses, his sectional agenda has weakened his northern support, and his foreign policy failures have tarnished Nigeria’s international standing. If these trends continue, it is increasingly likely that the 2027 elections will mark the end of Tinubu’s political career, much like Biden’s struggles for re-election.
