For someone who is very familiar with the workings of government, it is surprising that the former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-rufai would choose to go into the opposition less than two years after he celebrated the victory of the APC and in spite of the obvious disadvantages.
It is true that the former minister who has earned nicknames like Mai Rusau (the demolition man) and others gave his all to ensure the victory of the APC at the last general elections, but in Nigeria, it is considered unwise to be in the opposition or run on any other platform apart from the ruling party, at a period an incumbent is vying for a second term.
It has become the norm to think so because given the quantum of resources, official structures, forces of coercion at the disposal of incumbents it is considered nigh impossible for an incumbent to fail.
In the current dispensation, given the widely acclaimed political sagacity and deep pocket of the sitting president, most have concluded that it is given that he would win his second term.
For an El-rufai who has been in an out of power and knows the difference between the two, it is not likely that he is ignorant of these challenges.
This is why some are saying his recent decision to resign from the APC and join the SDP is part of the ruse by the ruling party to weaken the opposition.
But anybody that knows El-rufai knows very well that the man is not an actor. He does not wear costumes, does not apply powder on his face to cover his identity and is not known to deliver lines according to scripts written by others and for the benefit of others.
The stormy petrel shoots from the hip no matter the sensitivity of the situation. When he paid herdsmen ostensibly to avoid a reprisal attack on some communities, the information did not get to the public space through leaked Intel, he said it himself.
When others were being evasive about their response to likely monitoring of elections by foreign observers, he left no one in doubt about how he would dispatch them to their countries if they ‘misbehave.’
His penchant to say it as it is was why he became the natural choice for any political brinkmanship during the previous administration. So, the theory that his joining the SDP may be acting a script for the benefit of Tinubu does not fly unless he and no other is going to be the beneficiary.
As proof that he is not one to act any script, he pointed accusing fingers straight at the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, alleging he is the brain behind his predicament due to the latter’s reported 2031 presidential ambition.
No matter the thickness of the plot, exposing the wiles of a security chief like that and putting information that could scuttle his personal ambition goes beyond mere histrionics.
Many agree that the former FCT minister was not fairly treated by the APC led government when he was denied a ministerial position. To make matters worse, at the state level, where he claimed to have helped, his government has been put on trial for financial malfeasance.
Implied, the former governor was left with almost no choice but to kick. He stated recently that he did not leave the APC but that it was the APC that left him.
While his exit from the APC is not surprising, his defection to the SDP is and it raises two issues as far as this writer is concerned.
1) Why did he choose to hit back at his traducers so soon?
2) Why did he choose to leave when he could have chosen to remain quiet and observe things from the sidelines or do a ‘siddon look’ as Bola Ige would have put it?
3) Why did he choose the SDP?
The answer to the first question is not blowing in the wind. It was answered in his book, The Accidental Public Servant, when he narrated his proclivity to always get even whether the odds are stacked against him or not.
Secondly, El-rufai cannot afford to remain quite in the APC as being taciturn is absolutely not his nature. The former Kaduna state governor is one of those that likes to play in the big league, talk big and act big. He is the type of player that chooses to be a striker rather than on the defence even if the coach decides the latter as the best position for him.
On the third question, El-rufai knows very well that he cannot go to the PDP or the other big party, LP, as both have not fully recovered from internal crises and have been infiltrated by elements of the ruling party, so a seemingly less rancorous party, where his views would be heard seems a better option.
If anyone should ask me, i’d say that El-rufai knows the game he is playing.
He knows that once those in authority push a popular politician like him to a certain level, the masses, especially the ones in the north, are bound to interpret that as oppression and using the instrument of state to intimidate him while he couches himself in the garb of a victim of state witch hunt. And that, is enough to draw him the needed sympathy.
There’s no doubt that the masses in the north admire El-Rufai. After Buhari, he comes across as the next to enjoy the most popular mass appeal in the region even ahead of Rabiu Kwankwaso and VP Shettima.
Ordinarily, Buhari’s khalifa (successor) would have been Kwankwaso but the mere fact that he constantly challenged Buhari in an election and his inability to play the kind of opposition desired in the current dispensation has seen his rating drop and restricting his popularity to his state of Kano only.
El-rufai on the other hand possesses all the qualities that appeals to northern sentiments which were what made Buhari popular in the north.
He talks region, talks religion, is unapologetic when it comes to issues that affect both and is therefore seen as the defender of the interest of the region.
People forget that Buhari used to be like that too and that his name had for several years, been a hard sell in the Christian North and Southern parts of the country.
The more he continued to espouse those idiosyncracies that made him unpopular in the South, the more he became endeared to his people.
People also forget that the former President actually started out as a provincial champion but that later became a political asset for him when it was realised that he had an iron grip control of bloc votes across the northern region which was the APC bigwigs were willing to stake thier necks for him to fly the party’s flag in 2015.
Now, El-Rufai is seen be to protecting northern interest. He has unapologetically defended his Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna, argued in favour of introducing the idea at the national level, and had taken other actions that resonates with the majority of his people.
With El-rufai, the typical northerner knows exactly what to expect in any clash that involves his interests unlike others who are likely to be diplomatic in their actions and utterances.
Trying to ridicule him as the APC government is doing and his being called a bigot by others while he plays the victim would only make him attractive to the northern masses.
If he continues with his tough talk, defence of his region and claims of persecution, he is likely to confirm his position as the next big thing in the north after Buhari.
Though it’s not clear if he intends to contest as president, whichever dance step he chooses, it is bound to attract the interest of the audience.
If he chooses not to vie but to align with another candidate, the candidate will most definitely get a boost from the north but if he decides to run, it may not necessarily be to win, but to sway northern votes away from the ruling party and not the contrary as some are insinuating.
