Nigeria today sits on a dangerously shifting foundation. The political, economic, social, and security structures that once held the country together are rapidly weakening. I see my country imploding from within, and this situation is worsened by what I consider the complicity or silent complicity of parts of the elite and even some external powers with deep strategic interests in Nigeria. In my view, all the ingredients for fragmentation are already present, and only a miracle might prevent the disintegration that has been long predicted.
Across our political space, cutthroat power struggle, strangling of the opposition, and elite fragmentation deepen the sense of national instability. Economically, rampant inflation, a weakened currency, unemployment, and unbearable living conditions have pushed millions into frustration and despair. Ethnic, religious and social divisions have hardened as various groups ‘feel excluded’ from the Nigerian project and increasingly withdraw into regional identities. On the security front, insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal violence, and widespread criminality have eroded state authority in many areas. I do not see these events as accidental. I believe that the Nigerian elite, including politicians, business moguls, power brokers, and even international actors, benefit from the chaos or at least tolerate it because it suits their interests. Whether one agrees with this or not, it is a central part of Nigeria’s unfolding crisis.
Because of these realities, I draw strong parallels between Nigeria’s current trajectory and the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Nigeria, like Yugoslavia, is an “artificial” multinational state with delicate and competing ethnic, regional, and political interests but held together by a cream of our elites that transcended about micro sentiments, which I have, elsewhere, called the Nigerianists. Today, we do not have such men at the helm and the result is such convulsions.
The collapse of Yugoslavia did not come out of nowhere. It followed years of worsening economic decline, rising ethnic nationalism, the weakening of national institutions, external pressures, and political leaders who underestimated the fragility of the union. When I look at Nigeria today, I see similar warning signs. Ethnic identities have hardened. Grievances across major groups have deepened. Many regions are pushing for autonomy or outright separation. National institutions have lost credibility. Leadership appears either overwhelmed or unwilling to confront the systemic crisis. The signs are simply too similar to dismiss.
I also question whether President Tinubu understands the scale of the danger Nigeria faces. The prolonged non appointment of ambassadors by his administration raises serious concerns. In a time when Nigeria needs strong global engagement, the country remains diplomatically underrepresented. To me, this silence appears deliberate. It feels like a subtle signal to the international community to get used to Nigeria retreating from global relevance, possibly preparing them for the design that seems to be unfolding. Otherwise, how does one explain the non-appointment of ambassadors at such a critical moment that Nigeria is being discussed at other nation.
I also believe that President Tinubu is engaged in a subtle advancement of a greater Yoruba nation. His pattern of appointing Yoruba individuals into strategic positions, especially from northcentral Nigeria, appears to deliberately weaken the North while consolidating Yoruba political dominance. For me, this is not accidental. It is a calculated effort that aligns with long term regional ambitions disguised as national decision making.
Nigeria’s centrifugal pressures are not new. The Niger Delta has long agitated for resource control and sometimes outright autonomy. Biafra agitation remains alive in the Southeast. The Odua movement has grown stronger in the Southwest. The Middle Belt continues to demand autonomy due to deep seated religious and ethnic tensions. These regions have consistently but inconsiderately questioned the fairness of the Nigerian structure. Ironically, only the far North, especially the Northwest and Northeast, has historically shown consistent commitment to the Nigerian project. But even this region now stands on the brink of fragmentation. With insurgency, banditry, farmer herder conflicts, and internal political tensions, the North is already showing signs of disintegration. The breakup of Nigeria will begin with the breakup of the North, and the ongoing crises in the region are already pushing in that direction.
One of the biggest factors is the bogus Christian genocide claims in the North. These claims have intensified mistrust and heightened the fear that the region is collapsing under the weight of unresolved grievances. The crisis of out of school children adds even more danger. Millions of uneducated, vulnerable young people are being drawn into crime, radicalization, and violent groups. Insurgency, banditry, communal killings, and widespread criminal activity combine to create a region on the edge. These crises are not isolated. They are collectively pushing both the North and Nigeria toward an implosion similar to the early stages of the Yugoslav collapse.
A recent event that captures the fragility of the moment is the verdict delivered last week against Nnamdi Kanu. The life sentence handed down by the judiciary can be interpreted justice served for Nigerian unity and corporate existence, and it is plausible. However, I find the decision to move him to a prison in Sokoto deeply troubling. Why Sokoto? Why not Kirikiri in Lagos, which is a well-known maximum-security prison and closer to more stable environments. Sokoto is in a region facing insurgency and banditry. If there is a jailbreak or if criminal elements exploit the insecurity in the Northwest to attack the prison and harm Nnamdi Kanu, the consequences will be catastrophic. Nigeria may not survive the chain reaction that would follow from his boys. For this reason, I call on the president to, as a matter of national security, order the immediate transfer of Nnamdi Kanu to Lagos.
While these crises unfold, President Tinubu is busy taking loans that are unevenly distributed across the country. These loans pile up while their usage remains largely unscrutinized. This raises serious questions about national priorities and economic fairness at a time when Nigeria needs transparency more than ever.
The disintegration of Yugoslavia remains one of the most dramatic state collapses in modern history. It began slowly with economic decline, elite manipulations, ethnic grievances, and institutional failures that many did not take seriously at the time. Yet those small cracks eventually produced one of the most violent breakups of the twentieth century. Nigeria, in my view, mirrors too many of these signs. The warning signals are everywhere. The question is whether Nigerian leaders will heed them or continue blindly toward disaster.
If Nigeria remains on this trajectory of political misdirection, economic misery, ethnic and religious tension, worsening insecurity, and elite complicity, then it may indeed take only a fluke to prevent the final collapse. The country stands at the edge, and time is quickly running out. May Allah intervene.
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Nigeria: Any Lessons from Yugoslavia?
Nigeria today sits on a dangerously shifting foundation. The political, economic, social, and security structures that once held the country together are rapidly weakening. I see my country imploding from within, and this situation is worsened by what I consider the complicity or silent complicity of parts of the elite and even some external powers with deep strategic interests in Nigeria. In my view, all the ingredients for fragmentation are already present, and only a miracle might prevent the disintegration that has been long predicted.
Across our political space, cutthroat power struggle, strangling of the opposition, and elite fragmentation deepen the sense of national instability. Economically, rampant inflation, a weakened currency, unemployment, and unbearable living conditions have pushed millions into frustration and despair. Ethnic, religious and social divisions have hardened as various groups ‘feel excluded’ from the Nigerian project and increasingly withdraw into regional identities. On the security front, insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal violence, and widespread criminality have eroded state authority in many areas. I do not see these events as accidental. I believe that the Nigerian elite, including politicians, business moguls, power brokers, and even international actors, benefit from the chaos or at least tolerate it because it suits their interests. Whether one agrees with this or not, it is a central part of Nigeria’s unfolding crisis.
Because of these realities, I draw strong parallels between Nigeria’s current trajectory and the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Nigeria, like Yugoslavia, is an “artificial” multinational state with delicate and competing ethnic, regional, and political interests but held together by a cream of our elites that transcended about micro sentiments, which I have, elsewhere, called the Nigerianists. Today, we do not have such men at the helm and the result is such convulsions.
The collapse of Yugoslavia did not come out of nowhere. It followed years of worsening economic decline, rising ethnic nationalism, the weakening of national institutions, external pressures, and political leaders who underestimated the fragility of the union. When I look at Nigeria today, I see similar warning signs. Ethnic identities have hardened. Grievances across major groups have deepened. Many regions are pushing for autonomy or outright separation. National institutions have lost credibility. Leadership appears either overwhelmed or unwilling to confront the systemic crisis. The signs are simply too similar to dismiss.
I also question whether President Tinubu understands the scale of the danger Nigeria faces. The prolonged non appointment of ambassadors by his administration raises serious concerns. In a time when Nigeria needs strong global engagement, the country remains diplomatically underrepresented. To me, this silence appears deliberate. It feels like a subtle signal to the international community to get used to Nigeria retreating from global relevance, possibly preparing them for the design that seems to be unfolding. Otherwise, how does one explain the non-appointment of ambassadors at such a critical moment that Nigeria is being discussed at other nation.
I also believe that President Tinubu is engaged in a subtle advancement of a greater Yoruba nation. His pattern of appointing Yoruba individuals into strategic positions, especially from northcentral Nigeria, appears to deliberately weaken the North while consolidating Yoruba political dominance. For me, this is not accidental. It is a calculated effort that aligns with long term regional ambitions disguised as national decision making.
Nigeria’s centrifugal pressures are not new. The Niger Delta has long agitated for resource control and sometimes outright autonomy. Biafra agitation remains alive in the Southeast. The Odua movement has grown stronger in the Southwest. The Middle Belt continues to demand autonomy due to deep seated religious and ethnic tensions. These regions have consistently but inconsiderately questioned the fairness of the Nigerian structure. Ironically, only the far North, especially the Northwest and Northeast, has historically shown consistent commitment to the Nigerian project. But even this region now stands on the brink of fragmentation. With insurgency, banditry, farmer herder conflicts, and internal political tensions, the North is already showing signs of disintegration. The breakup of Nigeria will begin with the breakup of the North, and the ongoing crises in the region are already pushing in that direction.
One of the biggest factors is the bogus Christian genocide claims in the North. These claims have intensified mistrust and heightened the fear that the region is collapsing under the weight of unresolved grievances. The crisis of out of school children adds even more danger. Millions of uneducated, vulnerable young people are being drawn into crime, radicalization, and violent groups. Insurgency, banditry, communal killings, and widespread criminal activity combine to create a region on the edge. These crises are not isolated. They are collectively pushing both the North and Nigeria toward an implosion similar to the early stages of the Yugoslav collapse.
A recent event that captures the fragility of the moment is the verdict delivered last week against Nnamdi Kanu. The life sentence handed down by the judiciary can be interpreted justice served for Nigerian unity and corporate existence, and it is plausible. However, I find the decision to move him to a prison in Sokoto deeply troubling. Why Sokoto? Why not Kirikiri in Lagos, which is a well-known maximum-security prison and closer to more stable environments. Sokoto is in a region facing insurgency and banditry. If there is a jailbreak or if criminal elements exploit the insecurity in the Northwest to attack the prison and harm Nnamdi Kanu, the consequences will be catastrophic. Nigeria may not survive the chain reaction that would follow from his boys. For this reason, I call on the president to, as a matter of national security, order the immediate transfer of Nnamdi Kanu to Lagos.
While these crises unfold, President Tinubu is busy taking loans that are unevenly distributed across the country. These loans pile up while their usage remains largely unscrutinized. This raises serious questions about national priorities and economic fairness at a time when Nigeria needs transparency more than ever.
The disintegration of Yugoslavia remains one of the most dramatic state collapses in modern history. It began slowly with economic decline, elite manipulations, ethnic grievances, and institutional failures that many did not take seriously at the time. Yet those small cracks eventually produced one of the most violent breakups of the twentieth century. Nigeria, in my view, mirrors too many of these signs. The warning signals are everywhere. The question is whether Nigerian leaders will heed them or continue blindly toward disaster.
If Nigeria remains on this trajectory of political misdirection, economic misery, ethnic and religious tension, worsening insecurity, and elite complicity, then it may indeed take only a fluke to prevent the final collapse. The country stands at the edge, and time is quickly running out. May Allah intervene.
