As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, a quiet but consequential political realignment is emerging. At its core is an evolving alliance operating under the code name Sabuwar Tafiya—a Hausa phrase meaning “a new journey” or “a fresh start.” For those driving the initiative, the destination is clear: to democratically remove President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from power and end what they characterise as an era marked by economic decline, political marginalisation, and institutional erosion.
The architects of this coalition are in the final stages of structuring a new political vehicle, the All Democratic Alliance (ADA). While they have finalised the party’s constitution, leadership structure, manifesto, slogan, and logo, their most immediate challenge is not rallying public support but navigating the legal and administrative roadblocks posed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Insiders stress that the true battle will be ensuring their right to contest. This is indicative of a deeper anxiety: that electoral space in Nigeria is increasingly constrained by incumbency advantage and partisan capture of regulatory institutions.
The opposition’s growing confidence is not purely strategic. It is driven by a prevailing belief that President Tinubu has weakened his own re-election prospects through a series of policy miscalculations and governance missteps. Since assuming office in May 2023, his administration has presided over an economic downturn that many believe was avoidable.
The removal of fuel subsidies, while fiscally rational, was implemented without any meaningful mitigation for the most vulnerable. The ensuing naira collapse, inflation above 35 percent, and skyrocketing food prices have devastated household incomes.
Insecurity has also escalated, particularly in the North-West, North-East and North-Central zones, where banditry, kidnappings, and insurgent violence persist with alarming frequency. These material conditions have been compounded by perceptions of sectional favouritism. Critics argue that the administration has promoted a Lagos-centric or Yoruba-first governance style, which undermine the President’s national credibility. Whether this accusation is objectively fair or politically exaggerated, it has real electoral implications in regions like the North and South-East.
The emerging coalition is not a gathering of discontented opportunists as the Presidency repeatedly argued. It includes seasoned political figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Minister of Transport Rotimi Amaechi, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Senate President David Mark, former PDP Chairman Uche Secondus, and former Ministers Osita Chidoka and Abubakar Malami, among others.
These individuals are not unfamiliar with the mechanics of electoral politics. They understand institutional terrain, possess strong national bases, and have led or contested in national elections. Their collective presence suggests that Sabuwar Tafiya is more than an oppositional grievance—it is an intentional recalibration of Nigeria’s political centre.
Perhaps the most consequential potential addition to this coalition is Peter Obi, whose 2023 presidential bid fundamentally altered Nigeria’s political calculus. Obi demonstrated a unique ability to mobilise young people, middle-class voters, and reform-oriented citizens across ethnic lines particularly in the South-East, South-South, and urban South-West.
His appeal rests on a reputation for integrity, fiscal discipline, and technocratic competence, qualities that distinguish him in a political environment normally shaped by patronage and incumbency. Should he officially join ADA, Obi could bring a massive electoral boost. His base of committed voters, combined with the organisational strength of ADA’s other pillars, could transform the coalition from an ambitious experiment into a viable national force.
While the opposition organises, the ruling APC is facing internal fractures. Reports suggesting that President Tinubu may drop Vice President Kashim Shettima in favour of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the influential leader of the NNPP and founder of the Kwankwasiyya movement, have created unease.
Kwankwaso commands a significant following in Kano, one of the most electorally significant states in Nigeria. However, integrating him into APC’s presidential ticket would likely provoke resistance from Shettima loyalists as well as the those of the party’s National Chairma, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje who has no love lost with Kwankwaso. This will definitely disrupt northern political support for the president. The speculation, denied officially, continues to circulate due to the conspicuous silence of the president as well as the distance noticeable between the president and the vice during public outings.
This manoeuvre, described by some analysts as a “coalition by coercion”, highlights Tinubu’s strategy of absorbing opposition figures rather than confronting them ideologically. Yet, such absorption risks producing a party that is bloated, incoherent, and ideologically hollow.
A number of prominent politicians have responded by indicating they will possibly align with ADA. Their motivation is not merely electoral but ideological and moral as they feel they owe Nigeria the duty to clean the Augean stable. The desire for clarity of purpose, coherence of message, and restoration of democratic norms will further bring together an unlikely but increasingly resolute alliance.
Former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido articulated this opinion in a recent interview, declaring: “I will be part of any arrangement, any chemistry, any configuration—whatever it may be—if it will remove this government that is on autopilot.” He stopped short of endorsing ADA, but his underlying message was unambiguous: the nation is drifting, and urgent course correction is necessary.
Lamido further accused the Tinubu administration of relying on ethnic dog-whistles, historical revisionism, and partisan misuse of state resources to mobilise short-term loyalty but alienate an increasingly aware and agitated electorate.
Despite two years in office, President Tinubu has yet to articulate or implement a legacy-defining policy. Unlike his predecessors, Buhari infrastructure push, Jonathan, who implemented SURE-P (Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Program), late Yaradua, who pursued electoral reform or Obasanjo that got Nigeria out of debt, Tinubu’s tenure remains shapeless. His defenders cite structural reforms like subsidy withdrawal and exchange rate unification, but the impact of these policies has been overwhelmingly negative for most Nigerians.
Rather than mount a substantive defence, the presidency has always resorted to attacking critics, such as Nasir El-Rufai, whose performance in Kaduna particularly in infrastructure, education, and fiscal management offers a direct and inconvenient contrast to Tinubu’s.
At home, in 2015, Nigerians decisively rejected the incumbent PDP president, marking a significant step forward in our political development. Events across West Africa underscore the regional context in which Nigeria’s democratic moment is unfolding. In Senegal in 2024, popular dissatisfaction forced the ruling establishment to concede power to Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a former political prisoner. Last January in Ghana, similar economic grievances placed the ruling party on electoral notice.
These regional developments suggest that the era of invulnerable incumbents is ending. Citizens are increasingly willing to reject dominant parties when performance lags behind promises. Nigeria, too, is now on the cusp of such a reckoning.
If current trends continue, 2027 will be less a contest than a referendum. It will not merely determine who governs. It will answer a more fundamental question: Can Nigerian democracy deliver change through elections, or is it now captive to incumbency and cynicism?
Thus, this coalition is not simply a group of “wannabes”. It is the product of public outrage and the Nigerians’ search for renewal. The APC may control the institutions of state, but it no longer commands the moral high ground. In its place is a growing sentiment that the country must take a new path.
President Tinubu will certainly contest in 2027. But whether Nigerians will listen, after years of exclusion, impoverishment, and insecurity, is another matter entirely.
Unless he can recover both performance and perception, the question in 2027 will not be whether he deserves re-election, but whether Nigerians still believe he deserves power at all.
