In September 2024, Nigeria’s President embarks on his first state visit to China, marking a significant shift in the country’s foreign policy landscape. This visit comes at a critical juncture as Nigeria grapples with severe security challenges at home and faces the growing influence of China across Africa. Today, this column explores the implications of this visit, the evolving dynamics of Nigeria’s security situation, and the strategic necessity for Nigeria to diversify its international partnerships.
Over the past two decades, Nigeria has experienced a dramatic deterioration in security, marked by various forms of violence and insurgency. The most prominent threat has been Boko Haram, an extremist group that has wreaked havoc primarily in the northeastern part of the country. Since its emergence in 2009, Boko Haram has been responsible for thousands of deaths and has displaced millions of people.
In the Niger Delta region, militancy has plagued the area since the early 2000s, driven by frustrations over resource control and environmental degradation. The rise of militant groups in this oil-rich region has led to significant disruptions in oil production, affecting Nigeria’s economy.
Banditry and kidnapping have surged to alarming levels in the northern and central regions, plunging these areas into chaos and significantly undermining national stability. The relentless rise in these criminal activities has pushed the country to the brink, severely overburdening an already stretched security apparatus and escalating the overall threat to public safety. Moreover, these crimes have wreaked havoc on the largely subsistence economy in the affected regions, devastating local livelihoods and exacerbating the crisis.
In the southeast, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) have pursued secessionist agendas, leading to violent clashes with security forces, disruption of normal lives through the “sit-at-home” on Mondays, and creating further unrest in the region.
China’s influence in Africa has been on the rise over the past two decades, driven by a strategy of economic diplomacy and investment. The Chinese government has invested heavily in infrastructure projects, resource extraction, and various development initiatives across the continent. This growing influence is part of China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to enhance global trade and investment routes by fostering international cooperation.
Nigeria, as Africa’s most populous country and one of its largest economies, has been a focal point of Chinese interest. Investments in Nigerian infrastructure, such as railways, roads, and power projects, have demonstrated China’s commitment to deepening ties with the country. This increasing engagement underscores China’s strategic interest in Nigeria as a key partner in its African outreach.
Historically, Nigeria has maintained close relationships with Western powers, particularly the United States and European countries. These relationships have been characterized by diplomatic, economic, and military cooperation. However, this dependency on traditional Western partners has sometimes bordered on an obsession rather than a strategic approach that effectively addresses Nigeria’s needs.
The U.S. and Europe have provided substantial aid and support in various forms, including counterterrorism assistance and developmental aid. However, the results have often been mixed, with Nigeria continuing to face significant security challenges despite the support from these Western allies.
This reliance has led to a situation where Nigeria’s strategic decisions are heavily influenced by its relationship with Western countries, often to the detriment of exploring alternative partnerships that might offer more tailored support.
As Nigeria’s security situation continues to deteriorate, there is a growing need for the country to diversify its international partnerships. China offers a promising alternative to traditional Western allies, with its focus on infrastructure development and economic investment. This diversification is not merely a matter of exploring new alliances but a strategic necessity to address Nigeria’s complex security challenges effectively.
China could offer Nigeria significant military assistance as part of their growing partnership. This assistance might include the provision of advanced equipment, sharing crucial intelligence to bolster counter-insurgency efforts, and extensive training programs for Nigerian personnel. Such support could be pivotal in enhancing Nigeria’s military capabilities and improving its response to various security threats. This collaboration would not only strengthen Nigeria’s defense infrastructure but also align with China’s broader strategy of deepening its influence in Africa through practical, strategic partnerships.
China’s willingness to invest in Nigerian infrastructure and its growing presence in Africa make it a valuable partner. However, for Nigeria to benefit from this partnership, it must engage in negotiations that ensure mutually beneficial deals rather than lopsided agreements.
China’s engagement with Africa has often involved favorable terms for Chinese interests, sometimes at the expense of host countries. For Nigeria to maximize the benefits of its partnership with China, it must approach negotiations with a clear strategy and well-defined goals. This means ensuring that agreements are balanced and address Nigeria’s security and developmental needs effectively.
One historical parallel can be drawn from the Biafra conflict during Nigeria’s Civil War. When Biafra appeared to be gaining ground in late 1968, Nigeria sought support from the Soviet Union. This strategic shift proved pivotal, as Soviet assistance helped Nigeria regain control. Similar dynamics have been observed in other contexts, such as in Latin America, where countries have shifted alliances to secure support during times of crisis. For example, during the Cold War, countries in Latin America often played off U.S. and Soviet interests to gain economic and military support.
The President’s state visit to China represents a critical moment for Nigeria as it seeks to address its deteriorating security situation and explore new strategic partnerships. The growing influence of China in Africa presents an opportunity for Nigeria to diversify its international relations and reduce its over-reliance on traditional Western partners.
However, for this partnership to be truly beneficial, Nigeria must approach negotiations with China strategically, ensuring that deals are equitable and address the country’s specific needs. By learning from historical examples and focusing on creating balanced agreements, Nigeria can potentially turn its security challenges into opportunities for development and stability. As the President navigates this pivotal visit, the outcome will likely shape Nigeria’s foreign policy and security landscape for years to come.
