Since the inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in May 2023, Nigeria’s foreign policy direction has sparked significant concerns about the country’s long-term strategy and security interests, particularly within the West African region. Under the Tinubu administration, a series of strategic miscalculations have become increasingly evident, especially in how the country has prioritized international partners, courted investors, and engaged with key regional allies. These shifts in foreign policy risk weakening Nigeria’s security position and broader strategic goals. The consequences of these decisions, particularly regarding relationships with nations like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, are beginning to manifest in ways that could jeopardize the country’s regional and global standing.
One of the core features of Nigeria’s foreign policy under Tinubu has been an increased focus on international investment and building stronger relationships with foreign powers like France and investor nations like Qatar, the UAE and Brazil. This approach is understandable given Nigeria’s economic challenges, including the need for foreign capital to address its underdeveloped sectors and fiscal deficit. However, the drive to attract foreign investment has inadvertently come at the expense of nurturing crucial regional alliances—alliances that are key to Nigeria’s security and influence in West Africa.
Nigeria has traditionally relied on its regional neighbors to help address security challenges such as terrorism and insurgency, which have plagued the region for years. The Tinubu administration’s decision to prioritize international partnerships with nations that are more attuned to economic cooperation than to regional security—has diminished its influence within West Africa. While engaging with international partners is a legitimate policy goal, the strategic implications of neglecting Nigeria’s regional relationships are severe. In particular, countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, despite their own political upheavals and military coups, have been essential buffers against the growing threat of extremist groups like Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, and ISIS affiliates. By undermining these nations’ importance within regional cooperation frameworks, Nigeria has weakened a vital defense against regional insecurity.
One of the more striking aspects of Nigeria’s foreign policy under Tinubu is the administration’s aggressive push to enforce regional norms, particularly within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Tinubu’s leadership has been vocal about ECOWAS’s role in promoting democracy and governance, often taking a firm stance against military coups in countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. This has involved imposing sanctions and exerting diplomatic pressure on these nations in an effort to restore civilian governments. While promoting democratic values is an important goal, the Tinubu administration’s uncompromising stance has inadvertently fractured ECOWAS and alienated some of Nigeria’s most important regional allies.
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, responding to what they perceive as unwarranted foreign interference, have exited ECOWAS and even sought alternative alliances. This shift poses a significant blow to Nigeria’s regional influence, as these nations move away from a regional framework that has historically been a source of stability and cooperation. In particular, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso’s decision to pivot toward new partnerships—such as those with Russia or other African partners—poses a direct challenge to Nigeria’s strategic positioning in West Africa. These countries, which face similar security threats from extremist groups, are exploring alternative military and security partnerships that bypass Nigeria’s influence, thus diminishing its leadership role in the region.
The security implications of this shift are troubling. The exit of key West African nations from ECOWAS means that Nigeria’s influence within the organization is diminishing at a time when regional security challenges are intensifying. Countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have not only rejected ECOWAS attempts at intervention but have also begun to seek support from external powers like Russia, which is keen to expand its influence in Africa. This alignment with Russia could bring new security arrangements to counter terrorism, bypassing Nigerian efforts and undermining the collective security framework that Nigeria has long championed.
The security situation in these countries has already begun to improve with external support, particularly from Russia, which has been offering military aid and expertise. This presents a significant risk to Nigeria. As security pressures mount on Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, extremist groups may be pushed out of these territories and redirected into neighboring countries, including Nigeria. Already, the spillover effects from the security crises in the Sahel have been felt in parts of Nigeria, particularly in the northwestern states like Kebbi and Sokoto, which have seen an uptick in insurgent activity – the Lakurawa. This dynamic could lead to a destabilizing flow of refugees, militias, and insurgents across borders, further exacerbating Nigeria’s own security challenges.
In addition to the broader strategic miscalculations, there are serious concerns regarding the internal coordination of Nigeria’s foreign policy. The Tinubu administration’s foreign policy decisions have often seemed impulsive, with little consultation from Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In recent interviews, Nigeria’s Foreign Minister has struggled to defend the administration’s regional diplomatic approach, indicating a lack of coordination and internal communication between the presidency and the foreign affairs ministry. This disconnect has resulted in policy decisions that are not aligned with Nigeria’s long-term interests. These decisions often reflect a narrow focus on immediate economic benefits, such as securing foreign investments, and of course, the President’s ego, without considering the far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s regional relationships and security.
The failure to consult adequately with experts and to conduct thorough analysis before making major policy decisions suggests that the administration does not fully grasp the long-term consequences of its actions. A more strategic approach would involve strengthening ties with Nigeria’s immediate neighbors—particularly those in the West African region—that are directly involved in combating terrorism and insurgency. The shift away from these regional alliances towards broader international relations could have catastrophic consequences, leaving Nigeria isolated and vulnerable.
When analyzed through the lens of Ibrahim Gambari’s concentric circles model of foreign policy, Nigeria’s recent approach reveals a troubling shift. Gambari’s model prioritizes Nigeria’s relationship with its immediate regional neighbors, particularly within West Africa, as the innermost circle. The second circle encompasses broader continental commitments, such as engagements with the African Union and other African regional organizations. The outermost circle represents Nigeria’s global foreign relations, including interactions with powers like the United States, China, and the European Union. Historically, Nigeria has balanced these concentric circles, with a strong emphasis on.] regional security and leadership within ECOWAS.
However, under President Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria has prioritized global engagement and investment over regional concerns, undermining its influence within ECOWAS. This strategic miscalculation not only weakens Nigeria’s position within its primary circle (West Africa) but also risks eroding the foundations of its regional power. The administration’s failure to address regional security concerns and the resulting disintegration of ECOWAS could leave Nigeria in a precarious position, both in terms of regional security and its broader foreign policy objectives.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s foreign policy under President Tinubu is facing a series of strategic miscalculations that could have long-lasting implications. The shift away from regional priorities in favor of international partnerships risks weakening Nigeria’s position within West Africa and undermining the country’s role as a leader in the region. To regain its footing, Nigeria must reassess its foreign policy priorities and focus on strengthening its relationships with its immediate neighbors, especially those fighting terrorism and insurgency. Furthermore, the Presdency must ensure that its foreign policy decisions are guided by expert advice and coordinated with the foreign affairs ministry, to avoid further missteps. Only through a more strategic, region-focused approach can Nigeria secure its place as a leading power in West Africa.
