As the 2027 presidential elections draw nearer, Nigerian politics is becoming more complicated and contentious, with President Tinubu at the helm of a deeply divided political landscape. His strategies have increasingly drawn attention to the delicate political and religious balances in Northern Nigeria, as well as the potential for regional and religious rifts to widen under his leadership. Tinubu’s moves, particularly regarding his choices for running mates and political alliances, suggest a tactical but controversial bid to consolidate power at the expense of unity. A closer look at his political maneuvers, especially his efforts to play the religious card, hints at the possibility of divisive outcomes for the North, pushing it toward a state of internal colonization akin to what has occurred in other African nations.
Tinubu’s strategy to pitch both Christian and Muslim communities against each other in Northern Nigeria appears to be a desperate play for electoral advantage. The balancing act he attempts in selecting key political figures for his 2027 bid suggests that he might sacrifice long-term unity for short-term gain. Following the contentious 2023 election in which he partnered with Kashim Shettima, a Muslim from the Northeast, Tinubu’s decision to maintain a Muslim-Muslim ticket was a deeply polarizing one. This decision alienated many Northern Christians, who felt sidelined by a political leadership that ignored their presence and contributions in the region.
The president’s attempts to address these concerns in 2027 may take a more subtle form. Some reports have suggested that he could drop Shettima and select another northern figure, such as Rabiu Kwankwaso, a well-known politician from the Northwest. While this might seem like a strategic move to broaden his appeal in the North, the potential replacement of Shettima with Kwankwaso or another Northern politician poses serious risks for the region. If Kwankwaso or any similar figure were to accept this role, it could spell the political end for Northern Nigeria as a significant force in the country’s leadership structure.
Kwankwaso’s acceptance of the role of running mate could potentially cement a future where Northern Nigeria’s political influence is relegated to the background. This scenario mirrors historical instances where certain regions were politically subordinated to others. The situation in Cameroon, where Paul Biya and his kin have effectively dominated the country for decades, exemplifies the risks of such a dynamic. Biya’s long-standing reign and the marginalization of other regions created an environment ripe for internal discontent and regional division.
Similarly, in Sudan, the dominance of Northern Arabs over Southern Sudanese led to decades of conflict and instability. The eventual secession of South Sudan following a referendum was the culmination of years of disenfranchisement and oppression. If Northern Nigeria were to see its political leadership replaced or diminished by figures from the Southwest or elsewhere, it could set a dangerous precedent for the region, eroding the political relevance and destroying its economic future as well. It could lead to a situation where the region finds itself dominated by a political class that does not represent its interests, exacerbating existing divisions and igniting even more regional tensions. This situation has already begun under Buhari and now taking shape under Tinubu. The list of Tinubu’s ministers from the North speaks to this.
Tinubu’s political base in the North appears to be in disarray, as many within the Christian community are growing increasingly disillusioned with his leadership. Northern Christian leaders, intellectuals, and grassroots movements have already begun to express their dissatisfaction, signaling that they may not rally behind his candidacy in 2027. Unlike in the past, the influence of clerics and religious leaders has diminished significantly. The average voter in Northern Nigeria is now more focused on the practicalities of governance than on religious affiliation. For Tinubu, this could prove to be a major obstacle as he strives to gain the support of these disillusioned groups.
Furthermore, the loyalty of the Muslim community in Northern Nigeria is also not as guaranteed as it once was. The harsh realities of insecurity, unemployment, and underdevelopment continue to plague the region, and many voters are becoming increasingly critical of politicians who have failed to deliver meaningful results. In this climate, Tinubu’s reliance on religious appeals to gain support may backfire as voters begin to demand more from their leaders than just religious affiliation.
One of the regions where Tinubu is likely to face significant challenges is the Northwest, which includes states such as Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina. Historically, this region has been a major powerbase for northern politicians, but Tinubu’s treatment of this region has been marked by frustration and harsh retribution. The political reward he gave to the Northwest, so far, in his first term has been largely unsatisfactory, and many of the region’s voters feel neglected and alienated. This sentiment could lead to a flat tire for his bid in the region in 2027, especially as the Northwest continues to grapple with issues like insecurity, poor infrastructure, and economic stagnation.
Tinubu’s failures in addressing the needs of the Northwest could make him a less viable candidate in the eyes of voters, who may turn to other political figures who can better articulate and represent their concerns. This creates a more fragmented political environment, where Tinubu’s attempts to consolidate power through religious alliances may ultimately prove ineffective.
As Northern Nigeria looks ahead to the 2027 election, it is clear that the region is not simply fixated on returning power to the North. The Northern elites and electorate are increasingly focused on finding a president who can tackle the region’s most pressing challenges. Insecurity, economic opportunities, and infrastructure development remain key issues that are not being adequately addressed by the current administration. The North is seeking leadership that can provide concrete solutions to these crises rather than political gamesmanship based on religious or regional identities.
The leadership vacuum in Northern Nigeria is palpable. Politicians who continue to play selfish politics will meet up with voters who are tired of empty promises and political maneuvering. For Tinubu, this is a perilous situation. His efforts to centralize power, even at the cost of alienating large sections of the electorate, will backfire in 2027.
In response to his dwindling popularity and the growing dissent among opposition groups, Tinubu’s government has resorted to targeting opposition voices and inciting fear among critics. By incarcerating political rivals and suppressing dissent, Tinubu is attempting to halt the slide in his popularity, particularly in the North, where the youth movements and other grassroots organizations are challenging his authority. However, this approach risks further deepening the political divide and alienating even more voters, particularly the youth, who are increasingly attuned to the harsh realities of governance.
As the 2027 elections loom, Tinubu’s political strategy appears to be at a crossroads. The delicate balance between regional, religious, and political factions is rapidly disintegrating, and the Nigerian political landscape may soon experience a seismic shift. Whether or not Tinubu can overcome the challenges of alienating key constituencies and addressing the real issues facing Northern Nigeria remains to be seen.
In the game of politics, the term “checkmate” originates from the Persian phrase “shah mat,” meaning “the king is helpless” or “the king is dead.” In the context of Nigerian politics, Tinubu’s efforts to manipulate religious and regional divisions could very well lead him to a political dead-end. As with any game of strategy, overreach and underestimating the complexities of the terrain can result in a swift defeat. If Tinubu’s approach continues to alienate critical segments of the electorate, the political king of Nigeria may find himself in a position from which he cannot escape, ultimately marking the end of his political reign. The future of Northern Nigeria and, indeed, of the entire nation, hangs in the balance.
