Hans J. Morgenthau, in Politics Among Nations, reminds us that national power is not determined only by material assets such as population, territory, or military capability. Among his nine constituents of national power, the quality of political leadership and the quality of diplomacy are decisive. They determine how all other elements of power are coordinated, interpreted, and projected in the international system. Where political leadership is weak and diplomacy lacks direction, even a resource rich and populous country becomes vulnerable. Nigeria since 2023, under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, illustrates this condition clearly.
The increasing pattern of what can be described as US adventurism in Nigeria must be understood against this background of leadership and diplomatic failure. In international politics, adventurism thrives where a state appears compromised, uncertain, or incapable of defending its narrative. The United States does not need overt military intervention to exert influence. Diplomatic pressure, intelligence cooperation, public rhetoric, and selective military signaling are sufficient when a country’s leadership lacks moral authority and strategic clarity.
What clearly shows that the US is just on adventurism in Nigeria is that what seemed, technically, to be a fight against terrorism is being subplotted into a narrative of Christian genocide. This framing has been amplified by so called academics who act as conflict entrepreneurs, knowingly or unknowingly. Such narratives gain international traction not because they are grounded in careful analysis, but because Nigeria’s political leadership under Tinubu lacks the intellectual depth and diplomatic confidence to challenge and counter them effectively. In Morgenthau’s terms, this reflects a collapse in both the quality of political leadership and the quality of diplomacy.
Morgenthau argued that diplomacy is the art of bringing the different elements of national power to bear with maximum effect on the international scene. Diplomacy cannot rise above the political leadership it serves. Since 2023, Nigeria’s foreign policy has been largely reactive, unimaginative, and deferential. This is not because Nigeria lacks capable diplomats. The country has professionals who understand global affairs. The problem is that diplomacy has been emptied of strategic purpose by a political leadership that cannot properly code or decode the realities of world politics. As a result, Nigeria no longer defines the terms of engagement. External actors do.
This weakness is compounded by the regime’s overwhelming preoccupation with winning the 2027 elections. Under President Tinubu, governance has been subordinated to political survival. Economic hardship, insecurity, institutional decay, and foreign policy incoherence are treated not as urgent national emergencies but as inconveniences to be managed through propaganda and diversionary tactics. The real business of governance has been abandoned. A government consumed by electoral calculations cannot project seriousness abroad or command respect from major powers.
Credibility further constrains Nigeria’s position. It is widely known, based on court records, investigative journalism, and sustained public discourse, that there are damaging allegations and documented legal controversies connected to President Tinubu’s past in the United States. In addition, several senior figures within his government have faced ongoing or concluded criminal proceedings in the United States, including the Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila. Whether these matters are downplayed domestically or not, they resonate strongly in international diplomatic and policy circles. In Morgenthau’s framework, national morale, leadership credibility, and diplomatic effectiveness are inseparable. A government perceived as compromised cannot negotiate from a position of strength. It becomes vulnerable to pressure and manipulation.
This is precisely the environment in which US adventurism finds fertile ground. When a country’s president knows that unresolved legal and reputational issues exist within the jurisdiction of a superpower, his range of foreign policy options becomes severely limited. Assertiveness becomes risky. Resistance becomes costly. Silence becomes the policy. Nigeria’s hesitant or muted response to certain US actions and pronouncements reflects this constraint rather than strategic calculation.
That Trump’s strikes missed the areas where Christians are being killed, seemingly by their Christian brethren, and instead targeted locations where 99.99 percent of the population is Muslim, raises serious questions about intent and consistency. This selective approach undermines the humanitarian justification often advanced and reinforces the perception that Nigeria is being acted upon, not engaged as a sovereign equal.
Trump is still talking about striking terrorists in Nigeria hard. In the context of a weakened leadership under President Tinubu and a government burdened by credibility issues, such statements cannot be viewed as neutral counterterrorism rhetoric. They function as pressure, if not outright threats, directed at a presidency with limited room for maneuver. A confident and respected leader would push back, clarify red lines, and defend national sovereignty. A constrained leader absorbs the pressure quietly.
Political leadership’s clout ultimately determines the respect a country commands. Nations are not respected because they are large or resource rich. They are respected because their leaders are perceived as legitimate, competent, and capable of defending national interests. When leadership lacks clout, diplomats are undermined, soldiers are second guessed, and citizens are exposed. The United States, like all great powers, reads weakness accurately and exploits it rationally. This is not malice. It is the logic of power politics.
Nigeria today is paying the price for leadership that has replaced governance with electoral calculation. Morgenthau warned that when leadership fails, national power dissipates regardless of how abundant other resources may be. Until Nigeria restores the quality of its political leadership and, by extension, the quality of its diplomacy, US adventurism and similar external intrusions will persist. Power respects power. Respect begins with leadership worthy of it.
