Nigeria is today standing at a delicate crossroads our resilience as a people is being quietly tested, no longer through dramatic declarations, but through persistent pressures on the opposition. The growing concerns around the strangling of PDP, SDP, NNPP, the Labor Party, and now, the African Democratic Congress as a viable opposition platforms should not be dismissed as routine political maneuvering. History, both within Nigeria and across Africa, teaches us that when such suffocation happens in the political space, democracy itself begins to gasp and convulse, and in that vacuum, darker forces especially the military find oxygen.
The suppression and weakening of opposition parties by this government is not merely a partisan issue but a structural threat to this republic. Democracy thrives on contestation and completion, and, this is what gives citizens the ability to choose between alternatives. When that choice is deliberately contracted, or when opposition is delegitimized or crushed, frustration builds, not only among politicians, but within the broader population. And when political avenues are blocked, history shows that non-political actors may begin to see themselves as guardians of the state as well as vanguards and arbiters of national direction.
In Nigeria, we do not need to look far for this evidence. The 1966 Nigerian coup d’état did not emerge in a vacuum. It was preceded by deep political crises, particularly in the Western Region, where electoral manipulation, political violence, and governance breakdown created a sense of chaos and injustice. The inability of civilian institutions to resolve these crises eroded public confidence. That erosion became the fertile ground upon which that military intervention was justified, at least in the minds of those who carried it out. And Nigerians lost the First Republic.
Similarly, the prelude to the 1983 coup offers another warning to our leaders today. That coup was rationalized by widespread public frustration over economic mismanagement, corruption, and apparent electoral malpractice under the National Party of Nigeria government. Yet, even at its worst, many would argue that the excesses of that era, under Shagari, are dwarf in comparison to the scale and intensity of hardship being experienced by Nigerians today under current economic policies as well as the current brigandage by the current government in suppressing opposition. The lesson is that when democratic, or is it civilian, political systems lose legitimacy, they invite alternatives.
Needless to mention, Nigerians grapple with rising inflation, currency instability, unemployment, insecurity and a general decline in purchasing power today. These are not abstract economic, security and social indicators. They are lived realities that shape public mood daily in Nigeria. When people feel cornered economically, and insecure socially and voiceless politically, they lose faith in democratic processes. And when that faith is lost, the unthinkable becomes thinkable.
Across Africa, the warning signs are becoming increasingly visible for Nigeria and the current government. The so-called “coup belt” stretching across West and Central Africa continues to expand. These coups have been justified by their perpetrators as responses to governance failures, insecurity, and elite disconnect from popular suffering. In other instances, they are defended as anti-imperialist endeavors. Which of these reasons cannot justified in Nigeria today? Whether or not such justifications hold, they resonate with populations that feel abandoned by the leadership.
To be candid, Nigeria is not immune to these currents because it is part of the same African ecosystem that is subject to similar pressures and influences. The idea that Nigeria’s democratic structure is inherently immune to military disruption is a dangerous illusion. Further, the myths of invincibility that surround leaders is even a more dangerous illusion. No democracy is immune when its foundational principles are undermined.
In fact, October 2025 came with a tense situation of discontent within certain segments of the Nigerian military alleged to be planning or attempted to overthrow President Tinubu. Rather than take this seriously, the government appears to be coasting towards even further to frustrate Nigerians. The notion that there could others interestingly watching the drama going on, however remote, is not something to be dismissed with bravado or denial.
Mr. President, this is not a time for overconfidence. It is not a time to listen to advisers who assure you that your position is unassailable, that the system is too strong to be disrupted, or that dissent can be managed through suppression. History is unkind to such assurances. Leaders who believed they were untouchable have been proven wrong, suddenly and decisively.
Mr President, you have long been regarded, and indeed, you have presented yourself, as a democrat. A democrat who fought for the very freedoms that underpin this current Fourth Republic. That legacy carries both honor and responsibility. Therefore, it demands not only a commitment to democratic ideals in rhetoric, but also in practice. And one of the clearest tests of that commitment is tolerance for opposition, Sir.
Why, then, should there be any fear of the polls? Why should any administration that is confident in its performance feel threatened by a functioning opposition? Democracy is not weakened by competition but strengthened by it.
To continue on a path where opposition is constrained, whether through political pressure, institutional manipulation as the Independent National Electoral Commission is currently doing, or other means, is to risk repeating the very patterns that led to Nigeria’s darkest chapters. It is to ignore the lessons of 1966 and 1983. It is to underestimate the power of accumulated frustration.
Mr. President, you must tread caution and thoughtful consideration. Do not be swayed by those who claim that such outcomes are impossible. Such advice is not only historically inaccurate politically dangerous. Power, especially in volatile environments, is never absolute. It is contingent on legitimacy, on public trust, and on the perception of fairness. Those advisors are only there to feed their pockets, Mr President.
Mr President, if you are prepared to be adventurous with the fate of this republic, then know that Nigerians are not. Nigerians want their democracy. We want stability, but not at the cost of freedom. We want progress, but not at the cost of our voices. We want leadership, but not domination.
Mr President, this is a moment that calls for restraint, for reflection, and for a recommitment to democratic principles. Allow opposition to breathe. Allow institutions to function independently. Allow the people to decide. Nigeria has come too far, and has sacrificed too much, to return to the shadows of military rule. This republic must not be lost under your watch, Mr President.
